2023 EMMY PREDICTIONS: OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES

We will update this article throughout the season, along with all our predictions, so make sure to keep checking IndieWire for the latest news from the 2023 Emmys race. The nomination round of voting took place from June 15 to June 26, with the official Emmy nominations announced Wednesday, July 12. Afterward, final voting commences August 17 and ends the night of August 28. The 75th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards will now take place Monday, January 15, live on FOX at 8:00 p.m. ET/ 5:00 p.m. PT.

See our previous thoughts on what to expect at the 75th Primetime Emmy Awards here.

The State of the Race

With the supporting categories being more homogenous, there tends to be little change in where things stand in the Emmy race, but the thing to think about when judging this group of Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series nominees — in a year where they are not able to campaign — is “What shows are voters actually catching up on?”

Fair to say that the majority of TV Academy members have already seen “The White Lotus” Season 2, given how many awards they gave the first season of the provocative HBO dramedy. Though it earned a Limited Series win last year, Jennifer Coolidge already having an Emmy for her turn as daffy multimillionaire Tanya McQuoid is a major part of why she is still considered the frontrunner, even if the Drama categories put her up against more competition. (In 2023, 312 performances were submitted to this category, compared to 176 submissions for Supporting Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series.)

Outside of her, Aubrey Plaza and Meghann Fahy were given enough of a spotlight as key components of “The White Lotus” Season 2 to still resonate in viewers’ memories, despite the episodes airing nearly a year ago. If there are Emmy voters giving the show a rewatch, or even watching Season 2 for the first time — which does make sense because the show earned a lot of recognition for its craft work as well — the Emmy nominations here give incentive to judge Italian stars Sabrina Impacciatore and Simona Tabasco’s performances in a new light. As the hotel manager Valentina, Impacciatore was especially challenged, having to follow Murray Bartlett filling the same role at the Hawaii location of the titular hotel in Season 1 (and winning an Emmy for it).

It’s always important to reiterate that the Emmys are an award voted on by industry peers, so despite Rhea Seehorn just collecting a Television Critics Association Award for her performance as wily lawyer Kim Wexler in the final season of “Better Call Saul,” the AMC star still has a lot people she would need to win over in order to finally receive an Emmy.

Even though this year is seen as Seehorn’s last shot at a win for her “Saul” character (though never say never when it comes to following up characters in the “Breaking Bad” universe), it is hard to say that does much to boost her chances as the same could be said for almost every one of her fellow nominees. “Succession” ended during this TV season as well, so star J. Smith-Cameron is in the same boat, and “The White Lotus” so far has only allowed one major character to return per season, and it’ll be 2022 Emmy nominee Natasha Rothwell’s character leading Season 3.

Elizabeth Debicki is the only nominee here that will definitely have one more chance at the Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series Emmy after this year, as she will return as Princess Diana in the upcoming final season of Netflix’s “The Crown.” But precedent shows every actress on that show wins for their second season in the role anyway, so there is not too much pressure on the Australian star to try and overcome Coolidge this year.

Power Rankings:

  1. Jennifer Coolidge, “The White Lotus” (HBO)
  2. Rhea Seehorn, “Better Call Saul” (AMC)
  3. Aubrey Plaza, “The White Lotus” (HBO)
  4. Meghann Fahy, “The White Lotus” (HBO)
  5. Sabrina Impacciatore, “The White Lotus” (HBO)
  6. J. Smith-Cameron, “Succession” (HBO)
  7. Simona Tabasco, “The White Lotus” (HBO)
  8. Elizabeth Debicki, “The Crown” (Netflix)

Will Win: Jennifer Coolidge, “The White Lotus”

Could Win: Rhea Seehorn, “Better Call Saul”

Should Win: Meghann Fahy, “The White Lotus”

More Drama Category Predictions:

Outstanding Drama Series

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

To see IndieWire’s full set of predictions for the 75th Emmy Awards click here.

Last Year’s Winner: Julia Garner, “Ozark”

Still Eligible: No.

Hot Streak: With Garner out of the running, having tied the record for most consecutive wins in this category last year, the streak to look at is if Netflix could win Supporting Actress in a Drama for a fifth year in a row.

Notable Ineligible Series: Patricia Arquette, “Severance” (Season 2 was not eligible); Sydney Sweeney, “Euphoria” (Season 3 was not eligible); Sadie Sink, “Stranger Things” (Season 5 was not eligible); Fiona Shaw, “Killing Eve” (ended); Julia Garner, “Ozark” (ended)

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